Water scarcity: scientists see rise in drought-related conflicts

Updated - Thursday 22 March 2007

Scientists warn that climate change may cause an increase in drought-related conflicts in the developing world [1]. "Severe, prolonged droughts are the strongest indicator of high-intensity conflicts," said Marc Levy of the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University's Earth Institute in New York. These are internal conflicts, not between countries, and involving more than 1,000 battle deaths, Levy said. The scientists found that such conflicts tended to occur about a year after a "severe deviation in rainfall patterns. Although droughts don't directly cause conflicts, they can act as triggers where there are already tensions.

Rainfall appears to have a pacifying effect. The wet areas of Africa, for instance, have far fewer years of violent internal conflict than the dry regions. Drought need not always lead to conflict. Cities can act as buffer for seasonal migration during the dry season.

[1] Hydrology and Social Interactions: A Focus on Conflict in Africa. An interdiscliplinary exploration of the impact of drought on the incidence of civil War in Africa over the past three decades, a collaborative project of CIESIN, UNH Water Systems Analysis Group and Peace Research Institute of Oslo.

Web site: National Science Foundation - Award Abstract of Hydrology and Social Interactions project

“Coping with water scarcity” is the theme for the 2007 World Water Day

Contact: Marc A. Levy, CIESIN, Columbia University, marc.levy@ciesin.columbia.edu, http://ciesin.columbia.edu

Source: Stephen Leahy, IPS / Common Dreams, 16 Mar 2007